What impact will North Carolina have on the 2020 election?

What impact will North Carolina have on the 2020 election?


>>Sreenivasan: FOR A LOOK AT
HOW DEMOGRAPHICS IN NORTH
CAROLINA ARE CHANGING AND HOW
THAT MIGHT IMPACT THE 2020
ELECTION, I SPOKE RECENTLY WITH
ADAM HOCHBERG.
HE’S AN INSTRUCTOR AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA
SCHOOL OF MEDIA AND JOURNALISM
AND A CONTRIBUTOR TO PUBLIC
RADIO’S “AMERICAN HOMEFRONT”
PROJECT.
WE SAT DOWN AT AN EMPTY LECTURE
HALL AT U.N.C. CHAPEL HILL.
>>WELL, NORTH CAROLINA IS
GROWING.
THERE ARE A COUPLE CITIES IN
NORTH CAROLINA THAT ARE GROWING
HUGELY.
ONE OF THEM IS THE RALEIGH WAKE
COUNTY AREA, AND THE OTHER IS
THE CHARLOTTE AREA.
THEY’RE BOTH AMONG THE TOP
GROWING METRO AREAS IN THE
COUNTRY.
AND AS PEOPLE ARE MOVING IN,
THOSE AREAS ARE BECOMING, FIRST,
YOUNGER; SECOND, MORE EDUCATED
BECAUSE THESE ARE, IN A LOT OF
CASES, HIGHLY EDUCATED TECH JOBS
THAT PEOPLE ARE COMING HERE TO
FILL.
AND AS THESE AREAS SPRAWL
MAGNIFICENTLY, IT’S BECOMING
MORE SUBURBAN.
SO, WHEN YOU HEAR A LOT OF
ELECTORAL PUNDITS SAYING THAT
THE ELECTION IS GOING TO BE
DETERMINED BY THE SUBURBAN MOM
OR THE SUBURBAN FAMILY, WE HAVE
A LOT OF THOSE SUBURBS SPRINGING
UP, YOU KNOW, SEEMINGLY EVERY
DAY IN NORTH CAROLINA.
>>Sreenivasan: THERE HAVE ALSO
BEEN A LOT OF STORIES IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF YEARS LOOKING AT
NORTH CAROLINA IN UNFAVORABLE
LIGHT.
AND WHEN IT COMES TO WHO HAS
ACCESS TO VOTING, HOW
SIGNIFICANT IS IT IN NORTH
CAROLINA THAT EVERYONE HAS EQUAL
ACCESS TO GO VOTE?
>>AFTER THE 2010 CENSUS, THAT
WAS ALSO THE YEAR WHEN
REPUBLICANS TOOK OVER STATE
LEGISLATURE FOR FIRST TIME IN A
LONG TIME, AND THEY IMPLEMENTED
WHAT IS INDISPUTABLY CALLED
EXTREME GERRYMANDERING, OKAY?
NOW, THE REPUBLICANS WILL POINT
OUT THAT THE DEMOCRATS WERE IN
CHARGE FOR A LONG TIME, AND THEY
GERRYMANDERED, TOO.
AND THEY ABSOLUTELY DID.
WHAT WAS DIFFERENT ABOUT THE
2010 REDISTRICTING, 2011
REDISTRICTING IS, FIRST OF ALL,
THE TECHNOLOGY EXISTED FOR
MICRO-TARGETING OF POPULATIONS.
SO, YOU CAN LOOK AT DISTRICT
LINES.
THERE’S NOW THE DATA ON
INDIVIDUAL VOTERS WHERE YOU CAN
ALMOST KNOW HOW EVERY PERSON IN
EVERY HOUSE VOTES AND…
>>Sreenivasan: SO, YOU CAN
CARVE A DISTRICT AROUND THESE
HOUSES.
>>YOU CAN CARVE A DISTRICT
AROUND THOSE HOUSES.
THERE IS AN AFRICAN AMERICAN
COLLEGE CAMPUS THAT’S SPLIT IN
HALF.
THAT’S A PRETTY OBVIOUS EFFORT
TO SPLIT THE BLACK VOTE SO THAT
AFRICAN AMERICAN VOTERS DON’T
HAVE AS MUCH POWER IN ANY
PARTICULAR CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT.
IN THIS LAST ELECTION, 2018, YOU
HAD THE MAJORITY OF VOTERS IN
NORTH CAROLINA WHO VOTED IN A
CONGRESSIONAL ELECTION CASTING
THEIR BALLOTS FOR DEMOCRATS, AND
YET REPUBLICANS WON TEN OF THE
13 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS.
ONE OF THE LEADERS OF THAT
LEGISLATIVE REDISTRICTING EFFORT
WAS SAYING… WAS ASKED, “WHY
DID YOU DESIGN THESE MAPS SO
THAT REPUBLICANS WON TEN OF THE
13 DISTRICTS?”
HE SAID, “BECAUSE WE COULDN’T
THINK OF A WAY FOR THE
REPUBLICANS TO WIN 11 OF THE 13
DISTRICTS.”
>>Sreenivasan: SO, REALLY, THE
STRATEGY SEEMS TO BE AS MUCH AS
TURN OUT YOUR TEAM TO MAKE SURE
WHOEVER YOU THINK IS ON THE
OTHER TEAM DOESN’T SHOW UP.
>>SURE.
EARLY VOTING IS ANOTHER THING
THAT’S BEEN CONTENTIOUS IN NORTH
CAROLINA.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF CHURCHES,
MAINLY AFRICAN AMERICAN
CHURCHES, THAT DO VOTER DRIVES
ON SUNDAY, AFTER SUNDAY CHURCH
SERVICE.
THEY CALL IT “SOULS TO THE
POLLS.”
SO, THE LEGISLATURE PASSED A LAW
THAT SAID “NO EARLY VOTING ON
SUNDAY.”
IT HAD THE EFFECT OF REMOVING
THAT VEHICLE TO GET PEOPLE TO
THE POLLS.
NOW… AND WE HAVE TO SAY, ALL
THESE THINGS PUT TOGETHER, DO
THEY MAKE A… A HUGE IMPACT?
PROBABLY NOT.
DO THEY AFFECT SOME VOTES HERE
AND THERE?
YEAH.
AND WITH SOME OF THE MARGINS
THAT WE SEE IN NORTH CAROLINA,
MAYBE THEY COULD MAKE A
DIFFERENCE.

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